Thanks for the comment Jasper. We looked at higher-res screens as well, the next resolution up from the most common was 1920×1080. 18% of computers have that specific resolution (many computers here at BCI do, for example). The basic result was the same – you are losing 1 organic result from the SERP due to the appearance of a 4th paid ad above the fold. Depending on how the SERP is laid out, you are either going from 5 or 4 organic results above the fold to 4 or 3. Any way you slice it, organic real estate just got a little rarer (and a little more valuable).

Thanks for the comment Chris. We are in total agreement about user behavior when it comes to scrolling. We are seeing that searchers are much more likely to scroll through organic results, especially for longer tail queries. I do think the cost of paid clicks is going to go up a bit, especially once PPC managers have time to see the effect that being relegated to positions 5-7 is having on their conversion rates. The full effect of the change is going to take a little time, but I do think the paid landscape will be different in about 3 months.

Your point about SERPs with no paid ads (or just one) even with existing bidders is an interesting one. I am seeing branded search queries only result in 1 or 2 ads above the fold. I know that these queries in particular are very popular, however. I would have thought that they would have 4 paid ads above the fold. I do wonder if Google is going to limit the amount of results above the fold in an attempt to dramatically swing CPC. If they limit the real estate at the top of the SERP, they make it more valuable. Those top results are also much more likely to have ad enhancements, which can really help with CTR. Quite a bit changing, it will be interesting to see where things land.

I think one of your more important statements is about the near-irrelevance of the “fold” – anybody who has done scroll mapping or video sessions knows that users scroll constantly and easily these days. With less content above the fold, I think we’ll see that users view MORE organic listings than before, not fewer.

I have to wonder what this will do to the cost of paid clicks. There will be some emotional factors in play … with about half the above-the-fold paid search real estate gone, will bidders now get more aggressive about getting into the remaining spots? If prices go up, will some bidders turn to more aggressive SEO?

How will Google make this profitable for themselves? On paper, it looks like they might be hosting fewer clicks. Is it likely that Google will now attempt to show more paid ads overall? It’s not unusual to see SERPs with no paid ads, or just one … even when there are existing bidders. If Google lowers the threshold for a paid ad and consistently tries to display 3 paid ads on a page, their revenue could go up without an increase in per-click fees. Organic search listings would at the same time lose that top-of-SERP position that they enjoy when Google shows no paid ads at all.